Week Ten Recap
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Having enjoyed a sizable lead at the top of the leaderboard Karl finds himself looking over his shoulder as week ten saw me catch up further ground thanks to another successful bet on SAFC's fixture to end up featuring under 2.5 goals. The rest of the team struggled to bring home any profit, although there were a couple of close calls with both Dan and Chris coming just a goal short (either way) of their scoreline predictions of 0-0 and 1-1 respectively.
On to this week's selections...
It had to come sooner or later. Last time we went to Goodison Park we were on the wrong end of four goals, and whilst our defence hasn't been the problem this season I still think there'll be a few goals in this one.
After a couple of unsuccessful weeks it's time to go down a different route - goal scorers. Michu seemingly cannot go anywhere without 'buy of the season' following him around, so when he goes to St. Mary's this weekend, I'm hoping that notion will be repeated following a decent performance and, of course, a goal. Cardiff are seven-from-seven at home, but Peter Whittingham has gone a few games without a goal. Assigned to every dead-ball, that run should end before too long. And the last one's self-explanitory - all he does is score goals.
- Everton Vs Sunderland, Over 2.5 goals - 10/11 - £3 Stake
- Michu to score at any time (Southampton Vs Swansea), Peter Whittingham to score at any time (Cardiff Vs Hull), Robin Van Persie to score at any time (Aston Villa Vs Man Utd) treble - 17.6/1 - £3 Stake
Everton. Well, this could be fun. We all know just how badly Sunderland traditionally do at Goodison Park, and when you take into account their form, and ours, then it could prove to be a tough afternoon. I don't think we'll ship five, like this week's Fan Focus(er) suggested, but I can't see us getting anything from the game, and Jelavic may well get me some fantasy football points at the very least.
And for my second bet, a fourfold: Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace, Millwall and Cardiff to win.
Four teams, four wins, job done. Hopefully.
- Everton 2-0, First Goal Nikica Jelavic - 15/1 - £2 Stake
- Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace, Millwall & Cardiff to win - 18/1 £5 - Stake
Over the past few weeks I have had success backing under 2.5 goals for the Sunderland fixtures as part of this feature. Given our recent shot-shy form whilst still remaining relatively solid at the back it was a no brainer of a punt as far as I was concerned. Heading to Goodison however puts the cat amongst the pigeons where this strategy is concerned and I have been forced to rethink my strategy.
Whilst Sunderland's record against Everton is no secret, much like SAFC the home side have made a habit of drawing games recently, having drawn their last four. With this in mind I see no reason why Sunderland can't come away with a hard-fought point, plus it is a great price given the fact that both sides love a draw this season.
For my second bet I have put together a treble that I really like the look of and brings with it a great price. The first team to make the slip is Chelsea who are evens to beat Liverpool at the bridge on Sunday. I think this is a great price and again shows how the bookies continue to overprice Liverpool no matter what.
Second up is Cardiff who somehow managed to throw away a two goal lead at Charlton midweek and went on to lose 5-4. The Bluebirds are facing Steve Bruce's in-form Hull tomorrow and their home form is also just too good to ignore this term - available at a great price of 11/10.
Finally Leeds, who have been disappointing as of late, without a win in five. However tomorrow they welcome Watford to Elland Road who are very hit-and-miss on the road this term. I believe this to be a perfect opportunity for Warnock's men to return to winning ways.
- Everton Vs Sunderland, Draw - 10/3 - £3 Stake
- Chelsea, Cardiff & Leeds To Win - 9.24/1 - £2 Stake
Well a balance of zero could be worse I suppose. At least I'm not down yet. Not until after this weekend most likely. Anyway onto the predictions you should be avoiding, and we start at Goodison Park, where things don't look good for us. This is why purely in the interests of making money, I'm backing Nikica Jelavic to open the scoring in the opening 20 minutes at 11/1.
Elsewhere around the footballing world I'm backing Chelsea to beat Liverpool at home, a rejuvenated Ipswich Town to beat Burnley and finally Cardiff to beat Hull City, despite them having two Sunderland players currently on the books. All that comes in at a decent 9/1 shout.
- Nikica Jelavic To Score First In First 20 Minutes - 11/1 - £1 Stake
- Chelsea, Cardiff & Ipswich Town To Win - 9/1 - £2 Stake
Can I not just bow out with indignity? I'm awful at this. Just to prolong my awfulness, I'm going for a result that will never ever ever happen again. Back in 1996 we beat Everton 3-1. At Goodison Park. We won't do that tomorrow, but I'm going to bet on it anyway, for the hell of it.
Away from our Merseyside travails, a daft accy seems in order. I never win, so I've got nothing to lose, right?
- Sunderland to beat Everton 3-1 - 50/1 - £1
- Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, West Brom and Southampton all to win - 32/1 - £1