Week Seven Recap
|Pundit||Last Week's Profit/Loss||Current Balance|
Following a hiatus last week due to the International break we can now catch up with how the team got on with their week seven selections and the table makes it pretty clear who cleaned up with their selections. Karl brought home a fantastic £19 profit thanks to his double coming off which has given him a commanding lead over the rest of the lads. A notable mention too for Simon who brought himself back into the positive figures with his bet on three or more goals in the Manchester City vs Sunderland game. For the rest of us, its back to the drawing-board.
Onto this week's picks:
Having looked for value in the past, this selection is more of sentiment. Hopefully you can all forgive me for that - being derby week and all. Whilst 'never bet with your heart' is a valid warning, Steven Fletcher has scored the opening goal in four of the five games he was eligible for in the Premier League. The sentimental bit is not that he does so again, but that we hold out and emerge with the win.
There is other football this weekend - not that it matters too much - but games will still be played. In these, three away teams stand out: Arsenal should be too strong for a struggling Norwich side. The same for Rotherham against Aldershot, despite the Millers sitting in mid-table at present. The third leg is in Italy, where Roma are better-than-evens to beat Genoa on Sunday evening.
- Steven Fletcher first goal, Sunderland to win 1-0 - 30/1 - £2 Stake
- Arsenal to beat Norwich, Rotherham to beat Aldershot, Roma to beat Genoa - 6.09/1 - £3 Stake
With the way that Sunderland's season has progressed, it would be daft to bet against Steven Fletcher scoring the opening goal in a game. In fairness it would probably also be a bit foolish to back us to get two. But this is the derby, and all sense goes straight out of the window. So I'm backing the beautiful Swede to replicate Kieron Richardson's heroics and sink the mags with a free-kick. Whether it's 1-0 or 5-4, as long as he gets the final goal (although I would obviously prefer him to get the 11th in an 11-0 drubbing) then I'll be happy - and minted.
Okay - acca time, as Karl is hammering us all. I won't go into detail over every game, as there are lots of them...
- Seb Larsson last goal - 14/1 - £3 Stake
- PSG, Nancy, Lyon, Marseille, Fulham, Man Utd, Arsenal, Hull, Swindon, Fleetwood - 101/1 - £3 Stake
Form goes out of the window, or so they say, on Derby day. So where the hell does that leave us punters? Your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the two sides this year there is little between the two form-wise, with Newcastle two points better off, Sunderland with a game in hand and both sides heavily reliant on their in-form forwards, Demba Ba and Steven Fletcher respectively. With this in mind my Derby-based bet is for both teams to score.
Away from Sunday's big game in the North East I am going with a Championship double including the inform Crystal Palace who are at home to struggling Millwall and Steve Bruce's Hull who bounced back with a win last week and should have enough in the tank to beat Ipswich at the KC Stadium on Saturday
- Sunderland vs Newcastle: Both teams to score - 5/6 - £3.00 Stake
- Crystal Palace and Hull to win - 10/3 - £2.20 Stake
Betting is said to be an unpredictable game. Derby games are equally unpredictable. Therefore it's going to be very difficult to find some exceptional value in an unpredictable market on an unpredictable game. So I'm sorry to those who may have been suckered into my tips over the last few weeks, but these are pure punts based on gut feeling alone.
Also, as the week has gone on I've become increasingly pessimistic. It's just the nature of these games I suppose. This is why I'm hoping I'm wrong, and only taking a low risk on Seb Larsson scoring at any time in a draw, priced at a tasty 55/1.
Away from Wearside this week I'm looking at Swansea to get back on track and beat Wigan at home, Chelsea to win at Spurs and lastly Blackpool to come away from Turf Moor with all three points by beating Burnley.
- Seb Larsson to score in a draw - 55/1 - £1 Stake
- Swansea, Chelsea and Blackpool all to win - 13/1 - £1 Stake
You know what, sod it. This week's bet is a Sunderland win. A win, that's it. That's all I'm asking for, Lord. No bets on the first goalscorer, the number of corners, the amount of times Pardew looks like a smug...you get the point. Just give us a win, for all our sakes.
Away from the psychosis-inducing spectacle in the north-east this coming Sunday, I fancy a flutter in another derby. Spurs manager Andre Villas-Boas will have revenge on his mind as Chelsea visit the lane on Saturday lunchtime. I fancy AVB to pick up a victory there.
- Sunderland to win - 6/4 - £4 Stake
- Tottenham to beat Chelsea - 8/5 - £2.50 Stake